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Strike against Iran will have huge political costs By Khalid Hasan, Pakistan Daily Times, February 3, 2005 http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_3-2-2005_pg7_60
WASHINGTON: A US or Israeli military strike against Iran without UN authorisation would entail huge political costs and be seen as an act of aggression. According to a short study by George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, such a strike would be less likely to cause Egypt and Saudi Arabia to seek nuclear weapons than would allowing Iran to acquire such weapons. It would be seen as an act of aggression in violation of the enforcement processes envisioned, but ill-defined, in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Writes Perkovich, “Iran would consider itself free from all restraints to develop nuclear weapons, and much of the developing world would endorse this view. The treaty-based non-proliferation regime would crumble. Other states - perhaps Egypt and Saudi Arabia – could then withdraw from the treaty with few repercussions and legally hedge their nuclear bets. This would leave Israel and the United States with the prospect of having to contemplate military action against still more Islamic states, and with a major rise in terrorism as a form of asymmetrical resistance to what would be perceived as US and/or Israeli aggression.” According to him if Iran acquires the capability to produce weapon-usable uranium or plutonium it will be too dangerously close to having weapons. But can Israel live with an Iran that operates nuclear power reactors with fuel supplied by and returned to Russia? “Here there are differences, but the general impression is that Israelis can accommodate Iran’s nationalistic determination to generate nuclear electricity under stringent international arrangements. If Iran refuses to accept such an arrangement and instead moves to produce highly enriched uranium and/or to separate plutonium, Israelis believe military action should be taken - preferably by the United States,” writes Perkovich. The Carnegie expert is of the view that military strikes would not end the threat. The United States and Israel believe Iran has still-hidden nuclear facilities that presumably would not be destroyed. He believes that Iran, Hezbollah, and other organisations would respond with attacks on Israel, US forces in Iraq, and perhaps elsewhere. Military strikes would intensify rather than relax Iranian nationalism. “In short, there is no viable military option to durably negate Iran’s capacity to produce nuclear weapons or to create a new government in Iran that would renounce acquisition of capabilities to enrich uranium and separate plutonium,” he argues. Perkovich quotes an Israeli official who told him, “If you conclude that you absolutely cannot live with something, then you have to act. The consequences may be horrible, but they will come later. The consequences of not acting are intolerable immediately, so you have to act and live another day to deal with what comes next.” In Perkovich’s opinion, that is why Israel has tried to strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime even as it has maintained its undeclared nuclear arsenal as a deterrent of last resort. “The Arab states also have supported the non-proliferation regime even as they denounce Israel’s nuclear status. They do so because they, even more than the United States, need a rule-based, enforceable regime to prevent proliferation. Middle Eastern states now experience insecurity from neighbours with chemical and perhaps biological weapons, but the threat would grow vastly more difficult if existing constraints on nuclear programs were obliterated.” According to the analysis, Sunni Arab governments worry that a nuclear Iran would dominate the region and embolden resurgent Shia political forces in Iraq and other Gulf states. Because the nuclear non-proliferation regime
is helpful despite its flaws, neither the United States nor Israel can
afford to abandon diplomatic efforts to confine Iran to peaceful uses
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