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Bush Plans Long Escalating Wars - Maybe Nuclear War

Comment by Larry Ross, January 2, 2005


As Robert Parry points out, Bush plans long wars, is purging any doubters like Colin Powell and installing sycophants like Condolezza Rice and right-wing Fundamentalists who will enthusiastically support his every wish and give him the advice he wants to hear. Rather than have a more moderate second term, Bush plans on more wars: on Iran, Syria, North Korea etc as has been publicised. I didn't know Parry's brilliant paper would inspire me to write a comment that grew to become a much longer paper in itself. If you read it, I do welcome your criticism and comment, or correction if you think there are mistakes or if you have different conclusions.


Everything is in place for the following Scenario No 1. We must prevent it.

Consider the crimes that Bush has already committed, justified by his lies and religious beliefs, such as the God-predicted Armageddon starting in Israel and extending over the world - the invasions - the bombings - the tortures - the killing of over 100,000 Iraqis and poisoning their land with depleted uranium (DU) munitions. I think that Bush and his neo-cons are knowingly overextending their military to get the US into impossible situations as part of their strategy. I believe that potential nuclear weapons use has been built into the Neo-con middle-east plan and that careful plans have been made so that such use can be made acceptable to the US public. Otherwise why would the nuclear barrier be lowered in Bush's new pre-emptive war doctrines, in plans to make new nuclear weapons and plans to resume testing, withdrawing from nuclear disarmament treaties, and withdrawing US and personnel from potential prosecution as war criminals in the International Criminal Court at the Hague? Bush has also named 7 nations as possible targets of US nuclear attack. By deliberately overextending his military, he has placed himself in a position where he can claim he "has to use nuclear weapons to avoid the defeat of freedom and democracy and win the war on terrorism" His followers in the US, conditioned by the US (and foreign) mass media would approve and say he had no other choice. Supporters will say: "The wars on terror unfortunately require this terrible step but civilization is threatened and US will never be defeated in the war on terrorism" The key strategy here is to portray any resistance to US military actions as "terrorism". Then any US military response, with media support, is almost automatically approved. Facts don't count as the Bush Administration makes whatever new reality they deem necessary. People like Yale fraternity brother John Kerry, will probably call on the US people to support their "President and win the war on terror". So if people believe the psywar propaganda, and that's all "the news" many people in the US bother to get today, they will believe and approve that nuclear weapons use was justified and necessary.


Scenario No 2 - It could result from what is portrayed as a "terrorist attack" on the US like 9/11.

This might be used to justify nuclear weapons use against whoever Bush plans to accuse as responsible. He would probably name a pre-targeted nation, like Iran, Syria or North Korea, just as Iraq was targeted according to pre-9/11 neocon plans. He would claim they were responsible for the attack. Evidence would either be faked, claimed without substantiation, or not required, as was successfully done with Iraq war. Do people remember how Bush lied to get popular support for his war on Iraq? Lots of people have learned to forget and forgive that. They may know but do nothing. Or they just accept and excuse his lies and the 100,000 murders committed so far for these lies. He got a huge outpouring of popular support, especially from the mass media, for his completely phoney war on Iraq. Then he committed extensive election fraud on November 2, 2004, as in 2000 election, to gain what he claimed was a popular mandate to continue. With this litany of amazingly successful horrific lies and crimes, he and his Neo-conservative Administration could conclude that their plans for America and the world have worked just fine so far. I think they decided to continue with 'endless wars' toward the conclusion they want. No doubters protesters, critics, traitors or liberals allowed.

We must all remember the new truth, that to criticise Bush's lies, phoney wars, tortures and murders is anti-American and traitorous. So it's seldom done.

The high priest Neo-cons proclaim the rules and the people believe and follow, ready to sacrifice their sons and daughters just as the Aztec High Priests ordered the sacrifice of sons and daughters for their Sun God. The difference is that the Aztecs really believed in their nonsense, while the Neo-cons must marvel at how easy it has been to deceive Americans with lies and nonsense. The sacrifices have only just started. It may be too late, and the momentum too advanced, by the time the Americans wake up to the fact that their country has been stolen and they have been well and truly conned by a bunch of crooks and crazies leading them toward nuclear destruction and death.


Compare Two Human Tragedies with Similar Results, and Judge Where Humanity is Today.

Compare:(1) Over 150,000 dead from the December 26th Indian Ocean earthquake and millions starving, homeless and potential disease casualties. This resulted in much factual and justified publicity, followed by a well-justified outpouring of public sympathy and hundreds of millions in aid. I have no argument against such a compassionate response. (2) But compare that with public reaction to over 100,000 innocent Iraqi men, women and children killed by the illegal US War on Iraq, including torture, murder, bombing, shooting and DU poisoning. Much of the public genuinely doesn't know, due to embedded reporters, mass media support for Bush crimes, and US propaganda. Nevertheless enough do know and their reaction is indifference, claims they 'didn't know and didn't notice', or they just accept and agree with the conditioned US hostility towards the innocent victims they choose to regard as enemies. They extend little sympathy or aid for those that US propaganda labels as "terrorists". What conclusion would you draw from this? Was Hitler right when he said "the bigger the lie, the more people will believe it"?

One forlorn hope is that Bush will be impeached for election fraud before his inauguration on January 20, 2005. But I don't know if there is enough informed, committed people to make this happen. Bush followers are very dedicated and control enormous human and financial resources. Other Americans can be very kind, honest, intelligent, concerned and upright people. But some can be incredibly self-centred, money-oriented, and arrogantly ignorant. Many are hopelessly and irretrievably propagandised. Unfortunately Bush and his Neo-cons know how to deceive enough people and make it stick, so that they are psychologically immunised against the truth.

As in Orwell's 1984 "war is peace" and truth is whatever the great leader says it is. They cant be reached even with facts, presented by people they would usually trust and respect. There is not a great deal of difference between them and the Germans enthusiastically saluting Hitler, or the Italians saluting Mussolini. The Germans and Italians are not that different from Americans. They are all human. A similar proportion of any nationality will respond in the same way to similar stimuli. Only education could have protected Americans from the present onset of American-style fascism. But the educational system would never be allowed to teach them about the crimes of past politicians, let alone the crimes of present politicians such as George Bush. Indeed a so-called "leading historian Martin Gilbert" says Bush and Blair "may one day be seen as akin to Roosevelt and Churchill." Christchurch Press 27/12/04. I almost vomited when I read that. But it's routine and usual for The Press to support whatever Bush does.


Scenario No 3

However there is a lot at stake. Extend scenarios 1 and 2 logically as indicated, with further US destruction of Iraq extended to other countries. As Bush actions and plans become more obvious and difficult to disguise with propaganda they will cause concern and outrage to more people. People that may be attacked and destroyed could retaliate with unforeseen and unexpected actions. Those being being invaded, bombed and slaughtered without any justification other than Bush lies, may react more strongly than expected, particularly if the US has used nuclear weapons. Their reaction or resistance may then be used as a further propaganda "proof of terrorism" by the Neo-cons. They will then use this to justify further steps, including more massive slaughter, in their plan for US domination of the Middle East. At some point, other known or unknown nuclear arsenals might be used in reaction to US first nuclear use. Who knows what other states perceive to be US threats to themselves and how they might react. Remember the US Nuclear Posture Review, that named Russia and China (both nuclear weapon states), as well as the non-nuclear "Axis of Evil" states, as potential nuclear targets. How will they react if Bush invents excuses to start using nuclear weapons.


Nuclear War Never More Likely, says Helen Caldicott.


The ingredients for much wider wars, even nuclear wars are present. Helen Caldicott and other experts say Nuclear war has never been more likely. What Americans and most other people seem to have forgot is that once it starts, there is likely to be a rapid and uncontrollable progression and growth of a nuclear war to include more nations until it kills every living thing.(Something like this happened and many nations became quickly involved in WWI in 1914 with cannons and bayonets. So they killed millions but didn't have the technology to go further. For WWIII humanity has Vast arsenals of nuclear, chemical and germ weapons and the missiles to deliver these weapons anywhere in the world.


Insanity Rules and Makes Decisions Affecting Everyone

The Bush/Neo-con administration have the policies and equipment in place, the will, the religious, military and philosophical ideology and carefully chosen personnel, and is poisoning itself, to justify to itself that it is perfectly moral and reasonable to launch a nuclear war that can quickly grow and destroy all humanity.

The stakes have become very high but the Neo-cons seem ready to gamble with the fate of the world to satisfy the drives of their own insanities. Also, it is important to remember that the US-led nuclear arms race has been going on for 60 years. The US has been first to include "first use" and "pre-emptive nuclear strikes" into their nuclear doctrines. Although it seems crazy, and unbelievable, most Americans have been conditioned to accept US potential first use of nuclear weapons and not worry about it. They are quite satisfied to believe that their great, moral, honest, smiling, wise President will only use nuclear weapons against either nuclear or non-nuclear states, if he judges it necessary. And that's okay with them, they believe they are safe.

Any excuse using the "war on terrorism" justification will convince enough Americans to give Bush their support.


Preparing for Nuclear War For 60 Years

For 60 years, billions and billions of dollars has been invested in making the mass destruction weapons and delivery systems that could exterminate humanity many times over. All nations call it "deterrence" created for the security of their people. Initially, all agreed it was only to be used in the most extreme case of self-defence or retaliation against attack. There was widespread agreement at the highest levels that nuclear weapons use would quickly escalate to mutual suicide. Yet most thought it was okay to risk of a nuclear war triggered by "accident, miscalculation or act of madness or intent" as Kennedy warned in 1962 and many, many experts and statesmen have warned since. But they were a bit more careful and awed by the prospect, from 1945 to Clinton in the 90's. Statesmen reminded people of the risks, and created treaties like the NPT, ABM, Space Weapons Ban, Sea bed nuclear weapons ban, Nuclear Free Zones and other treaties designed to control the multi-headed nuclear weapons monster that could destroy the world. Times have changed. It's 60 years later and people think the cold war is over and nuclear threats are long gone with no wars "by accident, miscalculation or madness". But the extermination apparatus is still in place, and is being maintained and constantly upgraded. It does not follow, that because there was no tsunami for many years, there would never be a tsunami, but many believed that. Similarly many believe that because a nuclear war could kill all life, and we've had 60 years without one, people are too sane to allow it to happen. They forget that we have been very lucky, according to previous US Defence Secretary Robert McNamara in office in 1962, that we did not have one in 1962 over the Cuban missile crisis, or during a number of other near-miss situations. Who will guarantee we will always be so lucky this month, this year, or in ten years.


Bush and His Neocons greatly Add To The Nuclear Risk

Bush "is one of the most dangerous men in the world today" according to Nelson Mandella. His new pre-emptive nuclear war doctrines and Neo-con war planners, and right-wing Fundamentalists have added more to the nuclear risks as described in this paper. And they are a war criminal regime now ruling America, creating new wars that threaten the world. Bush claims the right to potentially use nuclear weapons against anyone, anytime for any reason he chooses to give. Bush and his Neo-cons have waived their magic wands and said the media should not go there and discuss such forbidden things as nuclear risks anymore, especially not the apparently seamless changes in US nuclear doctrines that make nuclear usage more likely. The Bush Administration wants the new nuclear doctrines to just be accepted without comment, and to be regarded as seamless, normal, acceptable, moral and non-threatening. They have succeeded and the media obey. Bush has decreed that morality is opposition to homosexual marriage, stem cell research and other silly issues. But never about his nuclear doctrines or his illegal wars that kill and maim thousands, or nuclear war that can kill all life on our planet. No comments or criticism allowed. Do you remember? Bush says that's anti-American . The world may be endangered due to limitless US Hubris and Bush's jocular Armageddonism. But you'd never know it from US mass media, which has become dumb and numb on how the Bush madness is leading toward a nuclear Armageddon for everyone.


Mix Nuclear Fundamentalism with Christian Fundamentalism and What Do You Get?

For those involved in planning and justifying nuclear war, it has become almost a religion in itself. The Christian Fundamentalist Armageddon theology is a belief system that is not against a fiery end for the human race. It welcomes a nuclear God-predicted Armageddon as God's way of punishing evil and rapturing the faithful believers to heaven, while everyone else is supposed to suffer the torments of hell.

To oppose this end for the human race, will require both recognition of the threat, then commitment, action, planning, resources and belief that it is worthwhile to work to prevent it.
I'll be speaking more about this during my April 2005 Pilgrimage Lecture Tour - details here.


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A 'Long War' Against Whom?

George W. Bush’s vision for America’s future is coming into clearer focus following Election 2004: For the next generation or more, it appears the American people will be asked to sacrifice their children, their tax dollars and possibly the remnants of their democracy to what a top U.S. commander now candidly calls the “Long War.”

By Robert Parry, Consortium News, December 31, 2004

While Central Command’s Gen. John Abizaid defines the “Long War” as the indefinite conflict against Islamic extremism around the world, Bush and his supporters have already opened a second front at home, determined to silence or neutralize domestic dissent that they see as sapping American “will.”

Not only has Bush continued to purge his second-term administration of even the most soft-spoken skeptics, but his disdain for criticism has emboldened his supporters to routinely refer to public dissenters as “traitors.”

Take, for instance, this letter from a Bush supporter who was infuriated when USA Today’s founder Al Neuharth suggested in an opinion column that U.S. troops should be brought home from Iraq “sooner rather than later.”

“This is war and you should be put in prison NOW for talking like this,” wrote someone by the name of Mel Gibbs. “You give aid and comfort to our enemies and aid them in murdering our proud soldiers. You people are a disgrace to America. Your families should be put in prison with you.”

In case readers think the extreme contents of this letter represent either parody or an aberration, they should peruse other comments that Neuharth’s modest suggestion elicited. Editor & Publisher editor Greg Mitchell has compiled a number of responses in a follow-up column. [See Editor & Publisher, Dec. 29, 2004]

Similar sentiments, of course, can be heard on right-wing talk radio or from commentators, such as best-selling author Ann Coulter. To many Bush backers, extremism in defense of W. is no vice.

No Doubts

Meanwhile, at the White House, there appear to be few of the second thoughts about the Long War that some Washington pundits expected as Bush headed into his second term. They foresaw a retreat from the grandiose neoconservative vision for violently remaking the Middle East.

Instead Bush seems to be throwing in his lot even more with the “neocons” while throwing out the likes of Secretary of State Colin Powell, who was regarded as a counterweight to their influence. Even life-long Republicans who served Bush’s father aren’t welcome in Bush’s second term if they disagreed with the invasion of Iraq.

Retired Gen. Brent Scowcroft, George H.W. Bush’s former national security adviser who warned about the risks of getting bogged down in Iraq, is being dumped as chairman of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, according to journalist Sidney Blumenthal.

“The transition to President Bush's second term, filled with backstage betrayals, plots and pathologies, would make for an excellent chapter of ‘I, Claudius,’” wrote Blumenthal, who was an adviser in President Bill Clinton’s White House. “The elder Bush's national security adviser was the last remnant of traditional Republican realism permitted to exist within the administration.” [Guardian, Dec. 30, 2004]

The Kerik Fiasco

While banishing doubters, Bush has been recruiting sycophants.

Bush’s ill-fated choice of Bernard Kerik to run the Department of Homeland Security collapsed after disclosures of Kerik’s questionable judgment in other jobs and his possible hiring of an illegal alien as a nanny. But the more troubling story may have been that Bush wanted a yes man like Kerik to oversee a department with broad powers over the civil liberties of American citizens.

Though Bush judged the former New York police commissioner to be a “good man,” others who knew Kerik had different opinions. For instance, while working for a Saudi hospital 20 years ago, Kerik ran the investigative arm of a security force that allegedly harassed and spied on American employees because they weren’t complying with strict Saudi rules governing alcohol and dating, according to former hospital employees interviewed by the Washington Post.

“Kerik was a goon,” said John Jones, a former hospital manager who also called Kerik and his security team “Gestapo.”

“Kerik used heavy-handed tactics in following single men around and keeping them away from some women,” said Ted Bailey, a doctor at the King Faisal Specialist Hospital in Riyadh. A paramedic named Michael Queen said, “Men and women had to be careful with security, but Bernie was the one we watched out for the most.”

In his 2001 autobiography, The Lost Son, Kerik said the Saudi moral code put him in an awkward position of having to investigate the private lives of Western employees. “It was challenging, negotiating such a closed, rigid system and trying to find justice in laws that, to an American, were unjust,” Kerik wrote.

Yet, while expressing discomfort over the demands from his Saudi boss, Kerik followed orders and kept tabs on fellow Americans. Eventually, even Saudi authorities apparently concluded that the hospital security team went too far. Kerik and five other members of the security staff were fired and deported, the former hospital employees told the Post. [Washington Post, Dec. 8, 2004]

Yes Men & Women

Though Kerik bowed out for the Homeland Security job, Bush has displayed a readiness to appoint other top officials who will say and do pretty much whatever the president wants.

Bush’s choice for Attorney General is White House counsel Alberto Gonzales, who participated in legal opinions asserting Bush’s right as commander-in-chief to override international law and abrogate constitutional protections for U.S. citizens by labeling them “enemy combatants.”

In summing up the White House position on Bush’s right to authorize torture, one military lawyer called the scope of authority being asserted “presidential power at its absolute apex.” [Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2004]

To replace Secretary of State Powell, Bush has picked his close confidant and national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, who helped whip up American fears of Iraq’s supposed weapons of mass destruction by alluding to possible “mushroom clouds.” Rice is so close to Bush that she once slipped up at a dinner party and referred to Bush as “my husb…” before catching herself and replacing that with “President Bush.”

Possibly more than any other administration in memory, Bush has prized loyalty over all other virtues. Reinforcing this notion, Bush has bestowed high honors on subordinates who complied with his wishes no matter how wrongheaded.

On Dec. 14, Bush gave Medals of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, to former CIA Director George Tenet, who gave Bush the false intelligence on Iraq’s WMD to justify the war; to retired Gen. Tommy Franks, who agreed to divert troops from chasing al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to Bush’s other priority of invading Iraq; and to former Iraq administrator Paul Bremer, who presided over the chaotic U.S. occupation made worse by the administration’s decision to disband the Iraqi army.

Future of War

Now, as Bush looks forward to his second Inaugural, the disturbing view of the future is of the Long War, fought across the Islamic world with no end in sight. In a blunt interview with the Washington Post’s David Ignatius, Gen. Abizaid acknowledged that the Long War is still in its early stages and will likely consume decades. Victory also will be hard to measure, Abizaid said.

“Success will instead be an incremental process of modernization of the Islamic world, which will gradually find its own accommodation with the global economy and open political systems,” Ignatius wrote in summarizing Abizaid’s position. [Washington Post, Dec. 26, 2004]

Despite the gravity of this moment, there has been remarkably little debate in the United States about whether the “Long War” strategy to remake the Middle East is, first, necessary and, second, achievable.

For its supporters, the war’s necessity is beyond debate, given that Islamic extremists from al-Qaeda attacked U.S. targets on Sept. 11, 2001. Bush himself was sold on a military-oriented solution to the threat in the days after the attacks as well as on the wisdom of making the invasion of Iraq a centerpiece of the strategy, though Saddam Hussein’s secular dictatorship had nothing to do with Sept. 11.

The neoconservative thinking went that U.S. military force in Iraq would give rise to a pro-American government in Baghdad, followed by similar changes in other Middle Eastern capitals. The only worthwhile discussion was over tactics for “winning,” not the wisdom of hitting back hard in the Islamic world.

Alternate View

But the challenges posed by the Sept. 11 attacks could be viewed quite differently. Indeed, investigations of the terror attacks have revealed that al-Qaeda’s daring blow was somewhat a lucky punch that landed in part because the newly arrived Bush administration rebuffed warnings from Clinton administration holdovers.

The Bush newcomers believed the Clinton team overemphasized dangers from Islamic terrorism while underestimating the threat of missile attacks from North Korea and other “rogue states.” Bush didn’t even convene his counter-terrorism experts in August 2001 when the CIA sent him a warning, “Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the U.S.”

Though the answer will never be known, a strong response to the CIA warning might have disrupted the attacks that killed 3,000 people.

If one concludes that the Sept. 11 attacks were a lucky punch, that would suggest that a more targeted reaction to Islamic terrorism might be in order – a mix of defensive measures at home, special military operations aimed at hard-core terrorists, and steps to address root causes of Islamic animosity, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Under that analysis, waging a Long War and occupying a major Islamic country such as Iraq could be putting the United States in greater danger, not less. The goal of killing “a lot of bad guys” – as Abizaid’s advisers put the challenge – may be emotionally satisfying, but it can only work if U.S. policy doesn’t generate more hatred across the Islamic world and thus more “bad guys.”

When U.S. troops engage in torture, sexual humiliation of captives, execution of battlefield wounded and the killing of civilians – which have been unfortunate but predictable results of the U.S. invasion of Iraq – it is equally predictable that antipathy toward the United States will deepen. [For example, see the Los Angeles Times’ Dec. 29, 2004, article “Getting an Education in Jihad” about a Lebanese teacher who grew furious over U.S. mistreatment of Iraqis and traveled to Iraq to join the insurgents.]

The hard truth is that Abizaid’s Long War may not only be long, bloody and costly, it may be counterproductive, increasing danger to the American homeland, not reducing it. Meanwhile, the war is certain to exacerbate political animosities at home, while inviting the Bush administration and its successors to step up suppression of dissent.

Just as the long Cold War gave rise to the military-industrial complex that President Dwight Eisenhower warned against, the Long War against Islamic extremism will put the United States on a course toward a more militarized society, a form of government more like an Empire than a Republic.

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Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories in the 1980s for the Associated Press and Newsweek. His new book, Secrecy & Privilege: Rise of the Bush Dynasty from Watergate to Iraq, can be ordered at secrecyandprivilege.com. It's also available at Amazon.com, as is his 1999 book, Lost History: Contras, Cocaine, the Press & 'Project Truth.'

 

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